The Home Run Race: Can Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh Break Records?

This week, baseball fans are in for a treat as the New York Yankees host the Seattle Mariners for three crucial games at Yankee Stadium. The matchup features two of the league’s most powerful hitters, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, both of whom are in contention for the single-season American League (AL) home run record. With both teams occupying wild-card spots and separated by just one game in the standings, the stakes are high.

As of Tuesday, the MLB home run leaderboard looks like this:

Raleigh and Judge are far ahead of the pack, with no other AL player having more than Riley Greene’s 22 home runs. It would take an injury or a sudden decline in performance for either of them to lose their lead in the AL home run race.

Cal Raleigh is having an extraordinary season, one that transcends his position as a catcher. Historically, only 19 catchers have hit 35 home runs in a season, and Raleigh has already achieved this feat in early July. His 35 home runs are six more than any other catcher before the All-Star break and five more than any other switch-hitter. The all-time record for home runs before the All-Star break is 39, set by Barry Bonds in 2001. With six games to go before the break, Raleigh has an outside chance of matching or even breaking Bonds’ record.

Raleigh’s performance is historic. He is on pace to hit 63 home runs this season, which would be a remarkable achievement for any player, let alone a catcher. His current pace puts him ahead of Aaron Judge’s record-setting 2022 season, when Judge hit 62 home runs.

Aaron Judge is no stranger to record-breaking performances. In 2022, he set the AL single-season home run record with 62 home runs. This season, he is on pace to hit 59.4 home runs, slightly behind his record pace but still an impressive figure. Judge’s ability to hit home runs in bunches is well-documented. He has had stretches of 30-plus home runs in 72 games in both 2022 and 2024, and 29 home runs in 72 games in 2023. Playing in the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium certainly aids his quest.

The primary challenge for Judge is the increased number of intentional walks he is receiving. Teams are wary of pitching to him, as evidenced by the 23 intentional walks he has already received this season, the most by any player since Mike Trout in 2018. This trend is likely to continue, making it harder for Judge to get enough pitches to hit.

Raleigh’s home ballpark, T-Mobile Park, is known for being a below-average home run park. Statcast’s park factors and the general consensus among baseball fans suggest that it is not an easy place to hit home runs. Interestingly, Raleigh has more home runs on the road (18) than at home (17), despite playing fewer road games (43 compared to 45 home games). This trend highlights the difficulty of hitting home runs in T-Mobile Park.

Playing as a catcher is one of the most demanding positions in baseball. The physical toll of catching can wear down a player over the course of a season. Raleigh has already started 87 of Seattle’s 90 games, with 66 starts at catcher and 21 as the designated hitter. His 599 innings behind the plate are the third most in baseball. The rigors of catching could eventually slow down his home run pace.

While common sense suggests that Raleigh will eventually slow down due to his home ballpark and the demands of his position, his current performance defies expectations. He is on pace for 1,078 innings behind the plate, which would be less than last year’s 1,122 innings but more than his 1,038 innings in 2023. At 28 years old, Raleigh is in his prime and has shown the ability to handle a heavy workload.

Breaking a home run record is always a long shot, but the fact that two players, including a catcher, are in contention makes this season particularly exciting. Raleigh will need to overcome the challenges posed by his home ballpark and the physical demands of his position. Judge, on the other hand, needs to find a way to get enough pitches to hit, despite the increasing number of intentional walks.

The race for the single-season AL home run record is heating up, with both Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh in strong contention. While Raleigh faces the challenges of playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and the physical demands of being a catcher, Judge must contend with the strategic decision of opposing teams to walk him intentionally. Regardless of the outcome, the performances of these two players this season are nothing short of remarkable. Baseball fans are in for an exciting finish to the season as they watch these two power hitters chase history.